Industry analysts are further lowering their 4Q26 and FY26 Macau GGR estimates following another month of soft gaming revenues in September.
After Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 1.2% year-on-year decline in September GGR to MOP$18.1 billion (US$2.24 billion), investment bank J.P. Morgan said it was lowering its FY26 estimate to MOP$249 billion, implying a 1% increase over 2025 and representing 85% of pre-COVID levels.
Although September is a seasonally slow month in Macau and part of the shoulder period leading up to October Golden Week, J.P. Morgan noted that the past month’s daily run-rate of MOP$602 million (US$74.5 million) per day was the lowest level since September 2024, adding, “It’s unclear whether the September softness stemmed from the recent China tax crackdown, more pronounced seasonality than usual ahead of Golden Week or a choppy China macro.”
With 2025 comparisons becoming challenging in the coming months, the bank is forecasting October GGR to fall 6% year-on-year to MOP$22.6 billion at 85% of 2019 levels and Q4 GGR to also decline 6% to 86% of 2019 levels.
In a separate note, Seaport Research Partners offered a similar assessment on recent demand softness, stating that it is “likely being caused by weaker China macroeconomic conditions and China government tax enforcement on offshore trusts impacting high net worth individuals with overseas assets.”
With 3Q26 GGR falling 3.8% year-on-year, Seaport expects a further 5% decline in Q4. While analyst Vitaly Umansky has 2026 GGR growth at 2.3%, he also noted, “Our models are under review.”
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