Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands (MBS) suffered a rare beat in the June 2026 quarter, with gross gaming revenue down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and Adjusted EBITDA falling 12.6% – largely on the back of a massive 48% decline in rolling chip volume when compared with Q1.
But analysts have warned that such significant swings will now the norm – a byproduct of the property’s ultra-premium positioning and heavy reliance on the VIP gaming segment.
In a Thursday note following release of MBS parent company Las Vegas Sands’ 2Q26 results, J.P. Morgan’s Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said “a byproduct of MBS’s premiumization is a lot more GGR volatility, as evidenced by rolling chips falling 48% quarter-on-quarter from 1Q’s US$18 billion (to US$9.3 billion).”
While J.P. Morgan described MBS as “still the best casino in the world,” the analysts added that increasing opex was another result of property premiumization as the company strives to maintain its elite service levels.
Seaport Research Partners takes a similar view and on Thursday detailed just how volatile VIP GGR has been at MBS over the past two years: rolling volume in that time has fluctuated between US$8 billion and over US$18 billion, with hold as low as 3.3% and as high as 5.3%.
“We forecast VIP volumes to be in the US$9.85 billion to US$10 billion quarterly range for the rest of 2026; however, VIP player concentration is high and a handful of large players could swing volumes materially,” said Seaport’s Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky.
Notably, theoretical hold has been trending north since the rollout of smart tables at MBS in 2024, with the company last year raising its baseline theo on rolling baccarat play from 3.30% to 3.70% and later abandoning the concept altogether, arguing that smart tables allowed it to accurately calculate theoretical hold for each quarter individually.
Theoretical hold has as a result ranged from 3.5% in 3Q24 to an equal high of 4.2% in 2Q26.
Umansky observed, “The driver of higher VIP hold in baccarat has been increasing propensity for higher casino edge side bets which have shown increasingly stronger popularity in both Singapore and Macau. The new smart digital table technology now allows operators to accurately capture theoretical hold. While mass has other games that do not yet have smart tables, we believe in mass baccarat hold has also been on the rise (measured on volume, not necessarily table drop). We hope LVS and other operators in Macau will eventually be able to provide actual theoretical hold in both VIP and Mass.”
Despite MBS falling below expectations in Q2, Seaport noted that it remains the “largest and most profitable casino property in the world, without peer,” with the quarter’s Adjusted EBITDA of US$689 million still its fifth highest ever.
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