J.P. Morgan said in a Wednesday note that expectations are low heading into Macau’s 2Q26 results season, with the investment bank’s forecasts at both industry and individual operator level largely below street consensus.
Analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielson and Michael Hirsch said their modest expectations come after 2Q26 GGR finished flat year-on-year and down 7% quarter-on-quarter due to lower VIP and premium play, unfavorable hold and the impact of the World Cup.
They also observed that “GGR growth comparisons don’t ease anytime soon” and that China consumer trends have been softening, with May retail sales declining year-on-year for the first time since 2022.”
As such, J.P. Morgan is forecasting a 3% year-on-year increase in 2Q26 industry GGR, slightly below consensus, and a 1% decline in both Q3 and Q4 when many other analysts are tipping a slight improvement.
On a company level, the investment bank said its 2Q26 EBITDA estimates are 10% below the Street for Sands China and 8% below the Street for MGM, although 1% above for Wynn.
Macau’s recovery pace meaningfully decelerated in 2Q26 and fundamentals appear softer despite already low sentiment and expectations,” the analysts wrote.
Sands China parent Las Vegas Sands has not yet announced its 2Q26 earnings release date but is expected to kick off Q2 results season late next week.
