Macquarie has lowered its Macau GGR forecast for 3Q26 – and subsequently its FY26 estimates – in the wake of the weaker June results and the expected impact of the ongoing World Cup on July.
In a Tuesday note, Macquarie analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir said they were lowering their Q3 forecast from 6% year-on-year growth to 2% year-on-year growth, with 2026 GGR now expected to grow by 5.4%, down from 7.7% prior.
This, they explained, is in part due to the World Cup continuing through 19 July. The global sporting event has historically impacted Macau gaming revenues because some premium players allocate their entertainment spend to sports betting for the duration of the tournament.
The Macquarie analysts added, “Looking ahead, we continue to see Macau demand as dependent on consumer sentiment, liquidity among premium players and regional macro conditions. While we believe the structural recovery story remains intact, the June result underscores the importance of the premium segment, which operators continue to highlight as the main driver of Macau growth.”
Macau enjoyed strong 14.3% GGR growth through the first three months of 2026 combined, however this has since subdued to 6.8% as of 30 June. June was also the first month to book a year-on-year decline since January 2025, with GGR falling 12.1% to MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.29 billion).
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