Investment bank J.P. Morgan has lowered its Macau GGR forecast for FY26 to MOP$254.6 billion (US$31.5 billion), down from MOP$258.7 billion (US$32.0 billion) previously, with the new figure representing a slight 3% year-on-year increase over 2025.
The revision follows release on Wednesday of GGR figures for June, which came in slightly below expectations at MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.30 billion) – down 12.1% year-on-year on tough comps and the impact of the football World Cup.
In a note, J.P. Morgan analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsch outlined subdued expectations for the remainder of 2026, observing that comparisons remain tough over the coming months.
They now forecast an 8% year-on-year decline to MOP$20.3 billion (US$2.51 billion) in July – which will continue to be impacted by the World Cup – a 1% decline for Q3 and a 1% decline for the December quarter.
The analysts do, however, note that the slowdown in GGR growth is already reflected in Macau stocks, with Las Vegas Sands having fallen by 14% and Wynn by 4% in 2Q26.
Citigroup remains slightly more bullish on Macau, despite predicting a 5% year-on-year decline in July’s GGR figure to MOP$21.0 billion (US$2.60 billion).
This, added analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, could be offset by a strong events calendar over the coming months that they believe can spark a positive rebound.
Concerts “featuring Anson Lo (Londoner Arena), Gareth.T (Galaxy Arena), Rosy Zhao (Galaxy Arena) and NCT JNJM (Londoner Arena) could mitigate some of the potential weakness,” they wrote. “Post-tournament, concerts like the King of POP featuring singers including Eason Chan and Joey Yung (Galaxy Arena) and Hins Cheung’s UNPLUGGED2 (Studio City Event Center) could kick-start Macau gaming recovery.”
Seaport Research Partners also see slight growth for the remainder of 2026, with a slow July to be followed by 5% year-on-year GGR growth in August.
Seaport’s Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky is forecasting 3Q26 GGR to rise by 2% year-on-year and 4Q26 by 4%, which would see FY26 GGR up by around 4.8% compared with 2025.
On stock valuations, he added, “While there are concerns around the near-term sustainability of GGR growth and the Chinese economy (along with geopolitical risks), gaming valuations (in particular those with Macau exposure) remain largely undemanding, contributing to a continued positive risk/reward positioning for most operators. The Macau sector (six primary Macau stocks) currently trades at a forward EV/EBITDA of 7.6x (consensus) – a 36% discount to the two-year pre-COVID (2018-2019) average of 11.9x.
“At current valuation levels, we believe investors are being well compensated to take on China-related risk, warranting long-term upside potential even in the face of short-term concerns.”
