Industry analysts are forecasting an end to Macau’s year-long growth cycle, with gross gaming revenue forecast to flatten out in June.
Having enjoyed 12 straight months of strong growth, including eight months of double-digit improvement on a year-on-year basis, June’s GGR figure is expected to come in flat year-on-year with Seaport Research Partners predicting a slight 0.3% decline from MOP$21.06 billion (US$2.61 billion) in June 2025.
The June quarter as a whole is seen growing by 3.9% year-on-year, with Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky stating “2H26 will see more difficult year-on-year comparisons, and we expect growth to slow to below 4% in 2H26 unless we see a pickup in demand or liquidity improvement. We forecast 2026 to grow 6.2%, with VIP up ~1% and mass up ~6%.”
J.P Morgan is forecasting GGR will grow by 1% year-on-year to MOP $21.2 billion (US$2.63 billion) in June, representing 89% of 2019 levels.
Macau’s DICJ released GGR figures for May on Monday, with GGR up 6.7% year-on-year to MOP$22.6 billion (US$2.80 billion), exceeding expectations of 5% growth.
Umansky said it is likely the May result was negatively impacted by low VIP hold and that hold-adjusted growth would have likely been over 12% to 13%.
