Financial research firm CreditSights said in a note that it expects Sands China’s EBITDA margins to continue trending lower in 2026 as the company continues enhancing its player reinvestment strategy.
However, it also anticipates the company will continue gaining Macau market share as a result of its investments, with free cash flow to remain positive and both revenue and EBITDA to show strong growth.
The forecast followed publication last week of Sands China’s 1Q26 financial results, which saw net revenues rise 2.4% year-on-year to US$2.11 billion and Adjusted Property EBITDA grow 18.3% to US$633 million. Adjusted Property EBITDA margin decreased 140bps year-on-year to 29.9%, although this was 40bps higher than in 4Q25.
With Sands China executives outlining their confidence in the positive impact their recent reimagining of the company’s reinvestment strategy, CreditSights analysts wrote in a Friday note, “Looking ahead into 2Q26, we expect margins to continue trending marginally lower given the competitive landscape of the premium market that could warrant an increase in service-level investments/promotional offerings by Sands China to attract/retain higher-spending punters.”
CreditSights also noted that Sands China was currently prioritizing revenue growth over margins in the near-term.
“Nevertheless, its customer reinvestment program continued to bear fruit in improving its market share [in 1Q26] and the company’s service-level investments/customer-focused initiatives are expected to continue driving growths in both revenue and EBITDA,” the analysts wrote.
“We expect to see further improvements to the company’s debt metrics in 2Q26, mainly driven by the debt reduction from the recent HKD$2.4 billion (US$307 million) repayment of the outstanding balance of its revolving credit facility (due in 2029) in April.
“We estimate Sands China’s free cash flow to have remained positive in 1Q26 thanks to the lower capex (-55% YoY) and better EBITDA, and we project free cash flow to remain in the green in 2026 given the tapering capex and higher expected EBITDA for FY26.”
