Hong Kong’s basketball betting scheme, originally scheduled to launch this September, has been abruptly suspended by the government.
It is understood that officials are primarily concerned that the rapidly rising “prediction markets” in the United States may generate negative spillover effects.
Hong Kong’s basketball betting proposal passed its third reading in the Legislative Council in September 2025, with the government drawing on the successful operating models used for horse racing and football betting. It had subsequently planned to issue a basketball betting license to the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) and slated the program to roll out officially this September – in time for the 2026/27 NBA season.
However, on Monday night reports emerged that the government had informed the HKJC to put its basketball betting plan on hold, stating that it must first examine how “prediction markets” might affect basketball betting.
A spokesperson for the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau explained that the rapid development of prediction markets in recent years could introduce significant uncertainty into the gambling market and if basketball betting were introduced at this stage, it might draw more people to prediction markets or even prompt them to shift to such platforms.
The spokesperson stressed that placing bets in Hong Kong on sports events via prediction markets would constitute illegal gambling.
“If basketball betting is launched under the current circumstances, it may lead more members of the public to notice and participate in illegal gambling on prediction markets, indirectly fueling the illegal market,” the spokesperson said.
The spokesperson added that the government therefore believes it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth study of how these emerging models and platforms operate. Until regulatory conditions and supporting measures are sufficiently developed, the authorities should pause progress on new gambling initiatives, they said.
In response to media enquiries, the HKJC said it respects the government’s decision and will await further instructions regarding the basketball betting license application.
So-called “prediction markets” are an emerging form of wagering on the outcome of future events that has become popular in the United States in recent years. Participants purchase a “contract” tied to a possible outcome of events that may occur in the future, and the odds reflect the market’s expectations of the probability of those events occurring – such as the outcome of a US presidential election or whether an international conflict will break out.
One of the most widely discussed examples in recent years was during the 2024 US presidential election, when the market set by prediction platform Polymarket correctly forecast that Donald Trump would defeat Kamala Harris. Its markets were said to be closer to the eventual outcome than many traditional opinion polls.
In its response, the Hong Kong government cited data indicating that monthly trading volume in prediction markets globally is projected to increase fivefold by 2030, with more than 40% related to sports. The government added that the market’s trading volume reached US$64 billion last year, up 300% from US$16 billion in 2024; monthly trading volume also rose from less than US$100 million in early 2024 to more than US$13 billion by the end of last year.
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