With 1Q26 earnings season just around the corner, Citigroup said in a Monday note that it expects Macau industry-wide EBITDA to have grown by around 8% year-on-year to US$2.15 billion, representing a slower rate of growth than the 14% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenues to MOP$65.9 billion (US$8.17 billion).
However, the financial services company said it expects that EBITDA margins held relatively steady at around 27%, implying that player reinvestments remain reasonable. Margins have been pressured post-COVID due to the shift towards premium mass gaming creating significantly more competition between concessionaires when it comes to player reinvestment.
In Monday’s note, Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said the lower industry EBITDA growth compared with GGR growth can likely also be attributed to a less favorable mix between mass and VIP GGR given the recent resurgence in VIP play – most of it direct.
“We also suspect that some casinos suffered from less favorable VIP hold, which hurt margins,” they wrote. Nevertheless, “The positive GGR and EBITDA growth during the quarter should remind investors that players’ appetite for gaming seems little bothered by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.”
The March 2026 quarter set yet another new post-pandemic high in terms of daily GGR, with Citigroup expecting Melco Resorts and Wynn Macau Ltd to report the largest market share improvements for the quarter.
“We anticipate Wynn Macau’s market share increases from 12.2% in 4Q25 to an estimated 13.4% in 1Q26 – and we believe it would have been much higher if its VIP hold rates at both of its properties were normal,” the analysts said.
“We also expect Sands China to have gained market share by 0.8-ppt quarter-on-quarter from 24.7% in 4025 to 25.5% in 1Q26.”
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