Industry analysts are forecasting another strong month for Macau’s gaming operators in April, with gross gaming revenue expected to grow by at least 10% year-on-year following another beat in March.
After Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced Wednesday a 15.0% year-on-year increase in GGR to MOP$22.6 billion (US$2.80 billion) in March, J.P. Morgan’s Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said they forecast GGR of MOP$20.7 billion in April, up 10% year-on-year and representing 88% of 2019 GGR levels. It also expects GGR for the June quarter to grow by 7% year-on-year although moderating comparisons in the second half of 2026 will see GGR grow by only 2% for the year as a whole, J.P.Morgan said.
Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky holds a slightly more bullish view, tipping a 12% year-on-year increase in April GGR before slowing to 8.2% in May. The second half of the year will see more difficult comparisons, with Seaport stating, “We expect growth to slow unless we see a pickup in demand or liquidity improvement. We forecast 2026 to grow 7%, with 1H rising 9.8% and 2H slowing to 4.4%.”
The March GGR result was, J.P. Morgan noted, better than expected with channel checks suggesting high VIP hold as well as rising weekly GGR as the month progressed.
For 1Q26, GGR finished 14% higher year-on-year with VIP estimated to have grown by 25% year-on-year to MOP$18.1 billion and mass GGR by 11% year-on-year to MOP$47.8 billion.
