Investment bank JP Morgan said in a Monday note that Macau’s gross gaming revenues for the first 22 days of February are estimated to have reached MOP$14.3 billion (US$1.78 billion) or MOP$650 million (US$80.7 million) a day – suggesting mixed results during the Chinese New Year “Golden Week” holiday period.
The period in question included eight days of this year’s nine-day holiday period, with JP Morgan analysts noting that this spanned both the quiet and peak stretches of Golden Week. While estimated GGR during that period came in below expectations at MOP$785 million (US$97.5 million) per day versus earlier estimates of MOP$850 million (US$106 million) per day, the numbers are more nuanced: the first four to five days saw sluggish GGR of MOP$450 million (US$55.9 million) per day before CNY came to life with GGR surging past MOP$1.2 billion (US$149 million) per day.
However, “The holiday isn’t over yet, and the next few days matter,” said JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian.
“This post-holiday ‘tail demand’ phase typically sees high-end players accelerate spending. We’ll get the full read from full-month GGR print over the weekend.”
Given uncertainty around the final GGR print, JP Morgan said it is “fine-tuning” its February forecast to see year-on-year growth of between 0% and 2%, down from a previous estimate of between 2% and 5%.
“Neutralizing for seasonality and calendar shift, this puts GGR growth [for January and February combined] at 12% to 13% – in-line with our and likely the street’s industry GGR forecasts,” the analysts wrote.
“Bottom line: the slower start to CNY, likely due to the longer holiday this year, has minimal impact on our sector view or forecasts.”
