Ratings Agency Fitch has affirmed Macau’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “AA” with a Stable Outlook, citing “exceptionally strong public and external finances” and forecasting that tax revenue generated through gaming will “well exceed” the government’s conservative 2026 forecast.
Gaming tax continues to account for more than 80% of the Macau government’s total revenues, with the city’s fiscal reserves having climbed to MOP$663 billion (US$82.3 billion) as of the end of November.
In a Wednesday note, Fitch said it expects the mass market, particularly the premium mass gaming segment, will remain relatively resilient in 2026, assuming solid visitation from mainland China. As a result, it sees GDP growth, while moderating, to reach 4.0% in 2026 from 4.7% last year.
“We expect gaming tourism growth to slow but remain solid in 2026, supported by favorable visa-entry policies, expanded cultural and entertainment offerings and continued non-gaming investments,” the agency explained.
“We [also] forecast a budget surplus of about 5.0% of GDP in 2026 and 5.2% in 2027 after an estimated 4.7% in 2025. This reflects our expectation that gaming tax revenue, accounting for more than 80% of total revenue in 2025, will well exceed the government’s conservative target this year, while we expect government spending to remain within budget.”
Downside risks include Macau’s narrow economic base, high dependence on gaming tourism from mainland China and vulnerability to policy shifts that may affect China’s treatment of cross-border gaming tourism, Fitch said.
“We expect the government will continue to push for the development of other sectors, for example by deepening the Macau-Hengqin integration and overseeing non-gaming investments by the six gaming concessionaries,” it the agency stated.
“However, human capital constraints and skill mismatches will limit Macau’s ability to build a competitive edge in nascent non-gaming sectors in the near term. Limited additions to hotel capacity and air connectivity will also constrain faster diversification of visitor source markets.”
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