Macau’s pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) slowdown has begun, according to Citibank, with gross gaming revenue for the first eight days of February forecast at MOP$5.0 billion (US$621 million), or MOP$625 million (US$77.6 million) per day – 14% lower that the daily run-rate in January. It is also 11% lower than the MOP$705 million (US$87.6 million) recorded in February 2025.
In a note, Citi’s George Choi and Timothy Chau said the moderation in GGR run rate likely reflects the expected seasonal pre-CNY slowdown in volumes.
They cited industry sources as suggesting VIP volumes since the start of the month are down by between 12% and 14% from January with mass GGR down 11% to 13%. Hold appears to be normal, they added.
Citi has maintained its February GGR forecast of MOP$20.5 billion (US$2.55 billion) – up 4% year-on-year – implying GGR will average around MOP$775 million (US$96.3 million) per day for the rest of the month.
Likewise, the bank’s GGR forecast for January and February combined – a figure that neutralizes the timing of CNY – also remains unchanged at MOP$43.1 billion (US$5.35 billion), up 13.5% year-on-year. Macau recorded GGR of MOP$22.6 billion (US$2.81 billion) in January, up 24.0% year-on-year.
Industry insight suggests a strong CNY ahead for the city’s concessionaires, with MGM China pointing to solid bookings in its earnings call last week.
