Total dividend payments from Macau’s concessionaires are expected to grow further in 2026, aided by rising revenues and improving free cash flow sector-wide, according to brokerage CLSA.
In their latest sector outlook for Macau gaming, CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan state that dividends are still poised to grow in the coming year following an encouraging year that included dividend surprises from Galaxy Entertainment Group, MGM China and Wynn Macau.
Specifically, they forecast that the sector will generate recurring free cashflow to equity holders (FCFE) of US$4.2 billion in 2026 – steady with 2025 levels –but with total dividend payments rising to US$2.9 billion. This would represent a dividend payout ratio of 68.1% versus a ratio of 50.6% in 2025.
Although Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings have yet to resume dividend payments post-COVID – with Melco recently flagging their return at the end of next year – CLSA said it can see Galaxy, MGM and Sands China implementing higher payouts in 2026.
“On a balanced view (earnings, cashflow and balance sheet profile), we still believe Galaxy and MGM China have the deepest pocket to raise dividend payout ratios in 2026,” the report states.
“For Sands China, we believe its dividends will be paid via its recurring free cashflow to equity holders. We are convinced that its dividend per share should be increasing in 2026 and 2027 as its free cashflow grows. Nonetheless, we expect the dividend will only return to 2018’s level (HK$1.99 per share) at the soonest in 2028 based on our EBITDA forecast.”
CLSA’s latest sector outlook predicts 5% year-on-year GGR growth in Macau in 2026 to around MOP$259 billion (US$32.3 billion) at MOP$709 million per day – largely in line with the actual daily average of MOP$705 million per day generated from July to October 2025. Growth is to be based on “stronger renminbi versus dollar and a currently positive industrial profit indicator.”
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