Investment bank Jefferies has raised its Macau gross gaming revenue estimates for the December 2025 quarter, citing the city’s record post-COVID performance in October and ongoing strength through early November.
In a Thursday note, Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said they now expect 4Q25 GGR to grow by 13% year-on-year – raised from their previous estimate of 6.6% growth – to MOP$67.9 billion (US$8.48 billion). This is also higher than the market’s 12% growth forecast.
As a result, the analysts have also set their GGR expectations for FY25 at MOP$246 billion (US$30.7 billion).
The forecast follows the MOP$24.09 billion (US$3.01 billion) in GGR Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported for October – easily beating the street – and ongoing momentum through the first nine days of November where GGR was estimated at MOP$711 million (US$88.8 million) per day, up 16% year-on-year.
“A recovery in the stock market (A share and HSI), private equity investment, plus an increase in IPOs has helped wealth creation,” Jefferies explained. “These support GGR growth especially on premium and VIP segments.”
The investment bank added that it sees Sands and Galaxy continuing to grow market share in Q4 while SJM will face further deterioration due to disruption from the closing of the satellite casinos and revamping of Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa.
