Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) told investors on Thursday morning (Asia time) that it has adopted a new methodology for calculating expected hold rates on rolling baccarat at Marina Bay Sands after seeing expected hold hit a new high of 4.2% in the September 2025 quarter.
Figures provided by the company alongside its 3Q25 financial results show that expected hold has climbed steadily over the past year, from 3.5% in 3Q24 to 3.7% in 4Q24, then 3.8% in the March quarter, 4.1% in 2Q25 and now 4.2%. The highly specific hold data has been made possible by smart gaming tables, which have now been rolled out at MBS for over a year. MBS utilizes Angel Group’s hybrid technology which combines RFID chip tracking with AI table-top cameras.
Elaborating on the company’s new methodology in its 3Q25 earnings call, Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein explained that there is no longer any such thing as “correct hold” because hold rates change every quarter depending upon the specific mix of bets players favor at any point in time. Smart tables, he added, simply allow operators to fully capture that data and calculate theoretical for the quarter accordingly.
“Smart tables give you a better measuring stick to know what bets [players] are making on the side,” Goldstein said, explaining that MBS will from now on report expected hold for each quarter rather than sticking with a standard percentage.
“We have good evidence that this is not a guess anymore. For years we wrestled with what is a correct hold percentage. There is no correct hold percentage. It depends on that quarter and what people bet. Some quarters come in at 5.1%, some at 3.8%. It depends what people bet on that table at the time – and every bet is calculated.”
Goldstein added that the company will also likely implement a similar philosophy at its Macau properties in the future, although the collection of data from smart tables has not quite caught up to MBS just yet.
IAG recently reported that Macau operators were still experimenting with the best side bet mix on their baccarat layouts amid fears that early over-implementation has been diminishing their returns.
“We’re moving towards this in Macau,” Goldstein said. “The smart table system is there as a score keeper, so as the Macau market has more opportunity – and you’re seeing it already – I think you will see [the theoretical] go up there as well.
“It has been more advantageous thus far in Singapore but we are moving that way in Macau as is the whole market there. If you go and look at the layouts now, there are side bets all over the place and in fact sometimes you can’t find the flat bets because the game is so busy with side bets.
“But yes, this will move towards Macau and it’s helpful to make the game more interesting and more diversified. And it’s not just tied to the high-end. Mass customers love it too.”
Angel Australasia Pty Ltd’s Managing Director, Bryan Jenkins, revealed earlier this year that baccarat side bets now account for almost 50% of Macau’s baccarat gaming revenues – highlighting the fact that the proliferation of smart table technology and its ability to accurately track chip movements has allowed operators to expand their side bet offering.
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