Investment bank JP Morgan has trimmed its Macau GGR forecast for October and for 4Q25 due to soft Golden Week numbers but stopped short of describing the decline as any sort of trend.
With Golden Week having seen a 5% year-on-year decline in gaming revenues based on early estimations, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian said they were now expected year-on-year growth for the month of October of between 3% and 6%, down from 11% previously. Their Q4 forecast is now for 9% growth versus 13% earlier.
Despite this, they do not consider the Golden Week performance to be a red flag, pointing instead to typhoon disruption, a softer mass market due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the loss of high-end players to Singapore during the Formula 1 Grand prix, held this year during Golden Week rather than its traditional September timeslot.
“With the usual noise and margin of error in consultant checks, we don’t view the Golden Week data as a conclusive red flag for fundamentals,” the analysts wrote. “The sector warrants further monitoring in the coming weeks before calling a trend.”
JP Morgan also noted that easy comps kick in from December, which the analysts say should drive industry GGR acceleration to mid-teens growth in December and low teens in 1Q26.
As such, industry-wide EBITDA is still forecast to grow by 10% in the December quarter.
