Macau’s gross gaming revenues are estimated to have reached MOP$5.5 billion (US$688 million) during the first five days of the October Golden Week holiday at a daily run-rate of MOP$1.1 billion (US$138 million) – the best Golden Week print in over five years according to investment bank JP Morgan.
That’s despite more bad weather negatively impacting visitation on Sunday, which saw a 25% drop off in arrivals and ultimately resulted in Macau gaming stocks falling by between 3% and 5%.
In a note, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian said that although growth appears muted at just 3% higher than last year’s high base, they are not worried about the momentum trajectory. This is because the longer eight-day holiday this year compared with seven days last year suggests more sustained demand in the back half of Golden Week, resulting in longer and stronger tail demand post the peak. They also expect the tail demand trend to be amplified as those players impacted by Sunday’s typhoon reschedule their visits.
“We continue to expect the second week’s GGR to grow mid-to-high-teens year-on-year to around MOP$750 million (US$94 million) per day, implying ~30% week-on-week decline versus last year’s ~40% week-on-week decline,” the analysts wrote.
“Our full-month projection remains unchanged for now, with GGR reaching a six-year high of MOP$23 billion (US$2.87 billion), growing at 11% to 13% year-on-year.”
