Industry analysts are expecting Macau’s gross gaming revenues to reach a new six-year high in October, with estimated growth of around 13% year-on-year to be supported by continued easing of travel and visa requirements in mainland China and a robust Macau events calendar.
After the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau revealed Wednesday that September GGR had fallen slightly short of consensus at MOP$18.3 billion (US$2.28 billion), analysts explained that the recent Super Typhoon Ragasa was largely to blame for the decline with JP Morgan estimating as much as 10% was shaved from the monthly total given the temporary shutdown of casinos, widespread flight and train cancellations and the closure of Hong Kong airport. Macau lost roughly three weekdays’ worth of revenues, the investment bank stated, implying September would have “easily delivered double digit growth absent the storm”.
The September print took total 3Q25 GGR to a post-COVID quarterly high of MOP$62.2 billion (US$7.75 billion) – up 13% year-on-year and 2% sequentially – with analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian confident the trend will continue into October for Macau, which is currently in the midst of Golden Week.
“For the first five days [of October and Golden Week], we expect daily GGR to exceed MOP$1.1 billion (US$137 million), potentially matching the pre-COVID Golden Week levels of MOP$1.16 billion (US$145 million), they wrote.
“Tail-end demand should be longer and stronger this year, likely driving MOP$750 million to MOP$760 million (US$93.5 million to US$94.7 million) per day in the second week, up mid-to-high-teens vs MOP$643 million (US$80.2 million) last year.
“Overall, we expect the first two weeks’ GGR to rise around 10% year-on-year to MOP$930 million (US$115.9 million) per day, leading full-month GGR to grow by 11% to 13% year-on-year to over MOP$23 billion (US$2.87 billion), the highest in six years.”
Seaport Research Partners is also tipping a 13% increase in GGR in October, albeit with downside potential should further typhoons strike the city.
“Growth should be driven by increased marketing and, importantly, continued ease of money outflows,” said Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky.
“Along with robust visa issuance, continued entertainment events will further help support demand. A trade deal between the US and China is likely to further boost consumer confidence and willingness to spend and travel to Macau, and any improvement in China consumer confidence would help drive overnight base mass recovery.”
Seaport added, “Our growth assumptions are driven by consumer confidence in China rising and the upper middle class base mass customers deploy their spending power while the wealthier premium segment continues to perform as well. The key growth driver however remains liquidity; as long as the liquidity channels remain open, Macau will continue to meet gaming demand (high-end demand in particular).”
Seaport is also predicting total 2025 GGR growth of 8.4% year-on-year in 2025, bolstered by a 12.4% year-on-year improvement in Q4.
