Investment bank Jefferies has again upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for 2025, with analysts now expecting gaming revenues to reach MOP$248 billion (US$31.8 billion) – revised upwards from its previous forecast of MOP$237 billion (US$29.3 billion).
In a note, Jefferies said its forecast was at the high end of market estimates and higher than government estimates, with its bullishness based on Macau’s rich line-up of high-profile concerts and events, new properties, more incentives to players and new wealth from stock and crypto markets surging.
“We expect these drivers will continue to fuel GGR growth for the rest of the year,” said analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei. “We expect events such as the NBA China Games and Macau Grand Prix will continue to help boost GGR in Sept-Dec.”
The revised forecast places FY25 GGR growth for Macau at 9.5%, including 13.8% year-on-year growth in the September 2025 quarter and 15.3% growth in Q4. The investment bank also anticipates further growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
According to Jefferies, one of the key reasons for the recent surge in gaming revenues is that operators are “rolling up their sleeves” and “preparing for a better and more differentiated promotion strategy” – as evidenced by comments from Sands China management promising to adopt a more aggressive approach to player reinvestment.
The analysts are, as a result, tipping Sands and Galaxy Entertainment Group to gain market share in 3Q25, while MGM and Wynn will maintain their current market share as niche players.
“We assume SJM will continue to lose market share with the closure of the satellite casinos and the slower-than-expected ramping up of Grand Lisboa Palace,” Jefferies wrote.
