Investment bank JP Morgan has estimated Macau’s gross gaming revenues in the seven days from 18 to 24 August at MOP$793 million (US$98.5 million) per day, representing a 9% increase over the prior week and making it the city’s highest non-Golden Week GGR since the pandemic.
In a Monday note, analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian said the impressive performance of the gaming sector over the past week was due to “strong visitation from peak summer holidays” – lifting month-to-date GGR through the first 24 days of August to MOP$17.65 billion (US$2.19 billion) at MOP$735 million (US$91.3 million) per day.
By segment, this implies both VIP and mass grew by 10% to 15% year-on-year, representing VIP recovery to 30% of pre-pandemic levels and mass recovery to 125% of pre-pandemic levels.
As such, JP Morgan has upped its August GGR forecast to grow by between 11% and 14% to between MOP$21.9 billion and MOP$22.5 billion (US$2.72 billion and US$2.79 billion), “likely breaking the post-pandemic record again”.
The bank is also expecting sustained double-digit GGR growth in the coming quarters – at least until 1Q26 – which it says should see Street upgrades to attract long-term investors into the sector.
While Macau’s Hong Kong-listed stocks have yet to impress in the post-pandemic world, the JP Morgan analyst said they expect this period of sustained growth should lead to a re-rating of stocks – and without a single major catalyst – as earnings visibility improves and the investor base broadens.
