Macquarie has lowered its target price for Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) and adjusted down its EBITDA forecast for the next three years due to the impact of tariff headlines on the company’s Macau outlook.
In a Thursday note following release of Las Vegas Sands’ 1Q25 earnings – which saw Macau EBITDA miss consensus by 7%, analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir said they were adopting a more cautious outlook for Macau with 2025 EBITDA forecast reduced from US$4.57 billion previously to US$4.44 billion. They have also lowered their 2026 EBITDA forecast from US$5.04 billion to US$4.90 billion and 2027 from US$5.42 billion to US$5.25 billion. Target price is now US$52 versus US$58 previously.
“We expected 2025 to be a turnaround year for LVS in Macau, but tariff headlines have delayed this; thus we reduce our bullish GGR market estimate from +6% year-on-year by +500bps to reflect this,” they wrote, noting that large cap gaming is down 20% year-to-date on sentiment approaching multi-year lows.
Macquarie still expects LVS to generate 24% Macau market share this year with revenue up 2% year-on-year and EBITDA up 3%.
The bank also remains generally positive long-term, particularly given the extraordinary performance of the company’s Singapore resort Marina Bay Sands.
“Singapore continues to be a source of strength and LVS is just realizing the benefits of its US$1.75 billion renovation program,” the analysts said. “Net net, while predicting the Macau recovery and valuation has been difficult, Singapore’s performance and our long-term view of the supply/demand in China keeps us Outperform.
“LVS remains a top Macau pick given its strong management team, capital returns, leading position in mass and unrivaled capacity (rooms, tables, non-gaming). Additionally, Singapore continues to be an incredible source of strength and earning.”
