Industry analysts are predicting a sequential increase in Macau-wide gross gaming revenues of between 2% and 6% in the December 2024 quarter, boosted by seasonality and ongoing strength of the premium mass segment.
As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, the fourth quarter got off to a solid start in October with Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) announcing Friday industry GGR of MOP$20.8 billion (US$2.60 billion) – up 20% over September and the highest monthly GGR figure since the pandemic.
The result was in-line with Bloomberg consensus but, according to JP Morgan, suggests the industry generated all-time high mass revenues in October.
“This looks pretty impressive to us, considering headwinds from weak macro and consumer sentiment,” said JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li in a note.
“Second, despite a likely softer-than-seasonal December (President Xi is likely to visit Macau to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to China), GGR should be able to edge up [by 2% to 3%] quarter-on-quarter to mark the first sequential rebound in three quarters.”
Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky is forecasting a larger 6.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in 4Q24 GGR to MOP$59.1 billion, with November revenues to fall 9% month-on-month – albeit up 17% versus November 2023 – and December revenues to climb 4% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year.
According to Umansky, much of Macau’s potential upside moving forward should come from the base mass segment which remains subdued at around 80% of 2019 levels, compared with premium mass which has been strong at 45% higher. VIP is down some 76% due to the collapse of the junket industry, with most VIP revenues coming from direct VIP.
Umansky said that it is the base mass segment that is most likely to benefit from recently announced stimulus provisions in mainland China. These provisions “should lead to an improvement in economic activity and consumer confidence in China in 2025,” he wrote. “This could lead to stronger base mass recovery (with continued premium growth) in 2025, which leads to our estimate of 2025 GGR growth of 8%.”
