A US$4 billion integrated resort being developed by Wynn Resorts on Al Marjan Island in the United Arab Emirates is seen generating gross gaming revenues of US$1.38 billion annually, with net revenues reaching US$1.8 billion, according to a new report by CBRE Institutional Research.
The report, titled “United Arab Emirates: The next gaming frontier”, also outlines CBRE’s expectation that the property in Ras Al Khaimah should ramp quickly given the current lack of gaming supply in the region.
According to analysts John DeCree, Colin Mansfield, Connor Parks and Max Marsh, Wynn Resorts can expect to generated free cash flow of around US$356 million by 2030, calculated on its 40% equity contribution and management contract. Property EBITDARM (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, Rent, and Management Fees) is estimated at US$921 million annually.
“We can’t help but get more bullish upon returning from our trip [to the UAE],” the analysts wrote, adding that they expect Wynn’s property to stabilize within three years.
“However, it could be much quicker. We have seen first-to-market properties like Marina Bay Sands and Sands Macao ramp much quicker given the historical lack of gaming supply in those markets.”
CBRE has also estimated the total addressable market for GGR in the UAE at US$8.5 billion, while a base case in which three IRs are developed – potentially one each in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Ras Al Khaimah – is pegged at US$6 billion annually.
“With a population of 9.7mm people (~88% expats), a robust tourism industry with ~25mm annual visitors and a high propensity to spend, virtually no gaming competition in the region, and an expectation for an operator-friendly regulatory regime, the UAE presents one of the best IR investment opportunities we have seen in a long time,” the analysts said.
The report also highlights the significance of margins, describing margin potential as the “more under-appreciated” part of the UAE story.
“We have seen consensus forming in the mid-30% property margin range for Wynn Al Marjan Island and other IRs in the UAE,” it states. “However, with an expected tax rate and regulatory regime that would rival Singapore and Las Vegas, relatively favorable labor conditions (compared with quotas in Macau and unions in Las Vegas), and virtually no competition, we would expect operating margins to be more akin to Singapore (50% range) than Las Vegas.”
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