Macau’s gross gaming revenue is tipped to reach MOP$17 billion (US$2.11 billion) in December, making it one of the strongest months of the year despite a slow start due to low VIP hold.
In a Monday note, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said GGR for the first 10 days of December was estimated at MOP$5.2 billion (US$646 million) with a daily run-rate of MOP$520 million (US$64.6 million) per day – weaker than the MOP$535 million (US$66.5 million) per day in November.
This, they explained, was due to poor luck factor in VIP, with hold of around 2% versus the standard 3%-plus. VIP GGR was, as a result, at around 15% of pre-COVID levels during this period compared with 20% in recent months.
Mass GGR for 1 to 10 December is estimated at between 95% and 100% of pre-COVID levels, also very slightly down on recent months, but the analysts said they “expect demand to ramp up in the coming weeks into Christmas and year-end holidays alongside normalizing luck … we expect full-month GGR to hit MOP$17 billion, translating to a ~MOP$550 million (US$68.4 million) per day run-rate with a 100%+ mass recovery.”
Such a result, the analysts added, would imply an 8% quarter-on-quarter improvement in GGR in Q4, which in turn could drive EBITDA growth of between 8% and 10% versus historical Q4 EBITDA growth of around 5%.
October remains the strongest month of the year to date with GGR of MOP$19.5 billion (US$2.42 billion), with August the only other month over MOP$17 billion at MOP$17.2 billion (US$2.14 billion).
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