Macau recorded its worst gross gaming revenue in 19 months in April, but industry analysts believe the signs are already pointing to a significant uptick in May.
As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, April GGR of MOP$2.68 billion (US$335 million) was the lowest since September 2020 and 27.1% lower than March, which had been the lowest in 18 months.
Both months were impacted by tight Macau border restrictions and travel impediments across mainland China due to growing COVID-19 outbreaks, however the recent easing of those border restrictions as they relate to COVID-19 testing for arrivals from Guangdong Province has seen more encouraging signs.
According to Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky, average daily revenue of MOP$96 million (US$12 million) in the six days from 25 to 30 April was 15% higher week-on-week, helped by the more relaxed border policy, while visitation was 11% higher. Around 29,700 visitors also arrived on the first day of the Labor Day holiday – the first time since February that daily visitation has nearly broken 30k.
“After over a month of severe lockdown in Shanghai and strict COVID measures in other cities, China’s overall reported COVID cases have now come down to below 30% of the peak level in mid-April,” Umansky wrote.
“We expect May’s GGR to remain weak but improve month-on-month from April.”
Bernstein forecasts GGR to be 85% higher in May than in April, although this would still be 80% lower than May 2019.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Amanda Cheng and Livy Lyu described early Golden Week visitation as “remarkably strong.”
“We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, as we’ve seen this movie before and we acknowledge any sustainable recovery requires mobility easing from the mainland on cross-provincial and Great Bay travel,” they wrote.
“However, this visitation figure proves – yet again – that the level of pent-up demand is strong, in our view.”
