Analysts from brokerage Sanford C Bernstein have lowered their March estimates following a weaker than expected seven days that saw VIP volume plummet by almost 20% compared with the same period in 2018.
In a Monday note, analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu revised their March estimates down from a decline of between 3% and 4% to a decline of between 5% and 6%, with the past week having seen an average daily rate (ADR) of around MOP$757 million. The ADR for the whole of March currently sits at an estimated MOP$795 million – down 12% on February numbers and 1% on January. It is also 5% lower than March 2018.
Notably, Bernstein observed that VIP revenue 12 months ago had been positively impacted by “several large-scale junket customer events”. As such, VIP volume is believed to be down by high-teens percentage in March with mass down mid-single digits.
The analysts also warned that 1Q19 GGR will likely be impacted by the continued enforcement of Macau’s smoking ban which came into full effect on 1 January.
However, “One area of potential high end GGR stabilization and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in 2H19.”
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